Sunday, September 19, 2010

US OPEN 2010: Men's and Women's Review

For the first time in a grand slam, MadProfessah has predicted correctly the last 3 rounds (7 matches) on both the men's and women's side: that is 14 of 14 correct calls from the (men's and women's) quarterfinals, (men's and women's) semifinals and (men's and women's) finals.

To put that in perspective, there's a 1/2 chance of getting any particular call correct. So, the expected value of correct calls when making 14 would be 7. The probability of getting 14 of 14 correct is like tossing a fair coin and have it come up heads 14 times in a row. The probability of this event is (0.5)14=0.000006104, which is a pretty small number (0.006 %).

Rafael Nadal was the biggest winner on the men's side, being able to achieve the career grand slam by finally winning the US Open. He was clearly the most dominating player in the draw, refusing to cede a set until the final and saving a ridiculous number of break points against his serve during the tournament.
Runner-up: Novak Djokovic for finally being able to break through in a major again by defeating Roger Federer in a major semifinal to show that he has a legitimate claim as the #2 player in the world.

Andy Murray was the biggest loser on the men's side, having lost in the 3rd round to Stanislas Wawrinka, when expectations had been raised because Murray had won a summer hard-court Master's title and had previously made two hard-court major finals. The talented Brit had a bad day at the office and showed that even players at the top of rankings can lose to anyone in the Top 20 if the lower-ranked player plays with belief and heart.

Kim Clijsters was the biggest winner on women's side, by becoming the first champion to defend her title in New York since her vanquished semifinal opponent Venus Williams did it in 2001. Clijsters lost one set in the entire tournament, a tie-break set to Venus and there really was never much doubt that if she made it to the final that she would be able to defeat whoever emerged from the Top half of the draw.
Runner-Up: Vera Zvonareva was the second biggest winner on the women's side by reaching her second consecutive major final, where (unfortunately) she was unable to demonstrate her best tennis.

Maria Sharapova was the biggest loser on the women's side. She had the potential to reach furthest in the draw but ended up losing in the 4th round to top seed Caroline Wozniacki. Sharapova did not play well in that match, and Wozniacki dismissed her in straight sets.

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