NYT Analyzes Majority Marriage Equality State Distribution

The New York Times analyzed the latest polls on marriage equality and demonstrated that there are numerous states where marriage equality has support significantly over 50%. The main point of the article is to demonstrate the rapid change in public opinion over time, comparing 1994-1996 (when the Defense of Marriage Act was debated and signed into law) to 2010. This is illustrated in an interactive graphic produced by the Times.

Today, 17 states are over that line (more if you consider the CNN estimate correct that just over 50 percent of the country supports gay marriage).

In 2008, the year Proposition 8 was approved, just under half of Californians supported same-sex marriage,. Today, according to polls, more than half do. A similar shift has occurred in Maine, where same-sex marriage legislation was repealed by ballot measure in 2009.

In both New York and New Jersey, where state legislatures in the past have defeated proposals to allow same-sex marriage, a majority now support it.

And support for same-sex marriage has increased in all states, even in relatively conservative places like Wyoming and Kentucky. Only Utah is still below where national support stood in 1996.

Among the five states that currently allow same-sex marriage, Iowa is the outlier. It is the only one of those states where support falls below half, at 44 percent.

The authors Andrew Gelman, Jeffrey Lax and Justin Phillips are using a statistical technique to interpolate statewide poll results from national surveys.