The 2010 US Open starts on Monday, so the men's and women's draws have been released. Savannah at Craig Hickman's Tennis Blog posted them and an online discussion is beginning.
The Men
The top seed is Rafael Nadal, who is trying to complete his career slam after winning Wimbledon and Roland Garros this year. A 14-match Grand Slam winning streak is nothing to sneeze at. However, Nadal has never even played a final in New York, although he has steadily improved his results every year he has played the event. In 2009, Juan Martin del Potro, the eventual champion, demolished him 6-2 6-2 6-2 in the semifinals. Looking at his draw, I doubt Rafa will get that far this year but he has a clear path to the quarterfinals. David Nalbandian is in his quarter, but the resurgent Argentine would have to get past Fernando Verdasco in the 3rd round. It's possible either Verdasco or Nalbandian could take Nadal out relatively early. If not, he would be facing whoever emerges from the bottom of the top half of the draw in the semifinal: Andy Murray, Tomas Berdych, Sam Querrey or John Isner. I don't see Rafa getting out of that match-up alive. Since the defending champion is injured, World #2 Roger Federer has a good chance to reach his 8th consecutive US Open final. I do think that in a Federer-Nadal 2010 US Open final, Nadal would be favored because of his head-to-head lead against the Swiss player and his previous demonstration in Melbourne that he can beat Federer in hard court finals as well as clay. Federer's path to the final is slightly more dangerous than Nadal's, but I think he has a greater likelihood of making it. His only obstacles are Robin Soderling in the quarterfinal and either Andy Roddick, Novak Djokovic or Nikolay Davydenko. I don't see Federer losing a US Open semifinal to any of these players, but he could lose in the quarterfinal to Soderling. Nadal has a small probability of losing in the quarterfinal but a much greater probability of losing in the semifinal. My prediction: Murray v Federer final.
The Women
The first response is to say that with World #1 Serena Williams out of the draw with injury do we really care what happens this year? Well World #2 and #1 seed Caroline Wozniacki would beg to differ. Although she made the final last year as a teenager and she won the 2010 US Open Series I seriously doubt her ability to repeat her achievement from 2009. Looking at her draw, Wozniacki has a potential 3rd round encounter with Lucie Safarova and a 4th round match with Maria Sharapova and a quarterfinal match with either Svetlana Kuznetsova or Li Na. The bottom half of the top part of the draw should feature a Jelena Jankovic-Vera Zvonareva quarterfinal. In the top of the bottom half of the draw if Venus Williams is any kind of shape, she should have a stroll to the semifinals (notwithstanding a 3rd round re-match with Tsvetlana Pironkova who took her out at Wimbledon). In the bottom of the bottom half of the draw defending champion Kim Clijsters will need to get through Marion Bartoli and Elena Dementieva. My prediction: Clijsters v Sharapova final.
Of course I reserve the right to revise these predictions when I see how people are actually playing during the tournament!
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